・Borrowing for investment makes sense as long as the return on investment exceeds the cost of borrowing, but if you borrow for consumption, you must make another debt to pay it, or if it is a company, you must draw it from operating profit, and the golden rule is “borrow for investment, don't borrow for consumption” (p29)
・Bubbles usually collapse and cause a chain of bankruptcy, but the next debt crisis will be on an extraordinary scale than before. Today, both developed and emerging countries have unprecedented levels of debt (p45) Central banks with large debt burdens will be forced to decide whether to let the government go bankrupt or write off debts due to high inflation; the latter is a type of default. The first time such a situation will occur is probably in the Eurozone. This is because paying member countries do not have their own central banks to prevent their own financial crises (p46)
・Many finance ministries in deficit countries prefer to raise funds through borrowing even though they want to reduce interest rate burdens; the reason is that if direct investment is accepted, control of at least some resources, state-owned enterprises, ports, transmission grids, etc. must be transferred (p59)
・Social security safety nets were put in place in developed countries at a time when many workers died before reaching retirement age, and today, if you retire at age 65 and start receiving pensions, it probably continues for decades and greatly exceeds securing social security tax (p93)
・In Japan, where the average age of workers is the highest among developed countries, the answer to aging is not immigration, but the introduction and automation of robots is being promoted. I changed it to a human and let an algorithm do the work (p97)
・Officially, it is said that it was the oil shock that caused the two economic recessions from the mid-1970s to the latter half of the 1970s, but if you analyze it in detail, you can see that the cause goes back to monetary and fiscal policies and is not OPEC's fault (p129)
・Instead of adjusting the value of money with interest rates, the Bank of Japan chose a method of depressing long-term interest rates by adjusting the amount of currency in circulation by purchasing long-term government bonds (p207)
・The dollar will probably be safe for the next 5 years or so, but there is a high possibility that the dollar will lose its brilliance when looking at decades, and even more so if the dollar is used as a weapon for national security purposes (p214)
・As one of the conditions for currency, they are widely used payment methods, and since the cryptocurrencies Bitcoin and Ethereum require huge computer resources, the number of transactions that can be processed per second is less than a dozen, and in contrast to this, the VISA network reaches 50,000 transactions per second (p226)
・The industrial revolution up until now has improved productivity; the first industrial revolution made full use of steam engines, the second was mass production, and the third made full use of electricity. These three revolutions made many jobs unnecessary, but they later created a number of employment opportunities that surpassed the jobs that were sent off, so humans were not permanently unnecessary. But what about today, there are fewer and fewer places where human workers can work. Unfortunately, high-tech companies have extremely few employees compared to major manufacturing companies in the past (p311)
・ AI first takes over routine tasks, then advances to jobs where cognitive ability is performed by following procedures requiring cognitive ability, and when it comes to performing creative tasks, humans no longer have a role anywhere, including occupations that require creativity. The day when such general-purpose human artificial intelligence (AGI) will appear is not far off. AGI is artificial intelligence with the same sensitivities and thought circuits as humans (p316)
・The closed Soviet economy depended on resource exports; in contrast to this, China has developed various industries and is leading the world in many items. Diplomacy is also far superior to the Soviet Union (p353)
・The Chinese leadership is well aware that their country's wage level is rising and the cost of survival advantage will eventually end, and this is one reason why China wants to be at the top of the world in AI by 2030 (p355)
・Resources such as copper, aluminum, and lithium are essential for the transition to green energy. Energy generated by fossil fuels is necessary to mine and process these minerals (p405)
・There has never been an example in history where peaceful redistribution has succeeded in mitigating inequalities, and only major changes can cause major changes in society (war, revolution, national collapse, plague) (p419)
・The 10 huge threats covered in this book will cause low growth over the next 20 years, and there is a risk that the crisis will become even more serious, but if 20 years of instability, confusion, and equipment can be overcome, a bright future where economic scarcity will be mitigated by AI and many problems may be solved (p488)
