Preparing for a future where everything will accelerate in 2030 investment law the future seen from the perspective of money

The purpose of this book is not to recommend specific investment products, but rather to predict society after 2030 from an “investor's point of view” and think about how to prepare for that change. What the author puts at the center is “exponential technology,” which progresses exponentially. The author predicts that social change will rapidly accelerate from 2030 as AI, IoT, robots, autonomous driving, 3D printers, communication technology, etc. not only advance individually, but also fuse with each other. (p15 to 19)
The key to understanding these changes is the “6D of Exponential.” Technology goes through processes such as “digitalization,” “incubation,” and “destruction,” “dematerializes” existing products and services, and eventually “popularizes” due to lower prices. For example, even if autonomous driving taxis become popular, there is a possibility that even the former will disappear if flying autonomous vehicles appear after that. While the new technology provides better services at prices close to free, it can be the “six gods of death” for existing industries. (p25)
From this point of view, the author also shows a strong sense of crisis in the Japanese automobile industry. It is said that if Waymo, Tesla, Apple, etc. evolve EVs or autonomous driving while Japanese companies, starting with Toyota, protect existing technology, there is a possibility that conventional competitiveness will be destroyed from the ground up. Also, they criticize that the fact that the Japanese government protected the existing electric/automobile industry with eco-points and eco-car subsidies after the Lehman shock delayed the transition to a new growth industry. (p26 to 27)
So how should individuals prepare? The author lists three. First, if there is a possibility that the current industry will be eliminated, relearn new technology and move to a growing industry. Second, consider the possibility that your life span will be extended to 120 years, and work as long as possible instead of completely quitting your job at age 65. Third, it is to utilize the investment period lengthened by longevity. According to the author's calculation, if the annual rate is 7.2%, the principal amount is about 4 times in 20 years, but it is about 45 times higher in 55 years. It is characteristic that longevity is viewed not only as a “risk of insufficient retirement funds,” but also as an “opportunity for long-term investment.” (p31)
On the technical side, we first predict the explosive expansion of IoT and communication. By 2030, there will be more than 1 trillion devices connected to the internet, and a huge number of devices will be connected by 6G, and small chips will be embedded in everything in the home. (p55)
What is even more important is AI. AI as of 2021 is at the stage of “weak AI” compatible with specific applications, such as numerical analysis, speech recognition, sentence recognition, and image recognition. However, the author introduces Kurzweil's predictions, and assumes that brain science, nanotechnology, and robotics interact, and “strong AI” that performs human-like general-purpose thinking will be born around 2029, changes will accelerate further from 2030, and singularity will be reached in 2045. (p67, 79)
Beyond that, there is a direct connection between the human brain and computers. By means of a brain-machine interface, human thoughts are sent to computers, and information on the cloud is sent back to the brain. Furthermore, the author looks at information transmission such as “telepathy,” so to speak, connecting the brain to the brain via the cloud. (p91, 103)
Due to this change, current smartphones and computers will also lose their leading role. If the brain and cloud are directly connected via wearable devices or goggles, searches, communication, shopping, etc. are carried out in the metaverse or hologram. There is a possibility that this will even rewrite the power chart of giant IT companies such as Microsoft, Apple, Google, Facebook, and Amazon. (p101-112) The author cites three conditions for realizing strong AI: computer processing capacity, large amounts of data, and neuroscience. (p115, 126)
Autonomous driving and sharing will also change the economic premise of “ownership.” Current automobiles remain parked for most of the time, but the author predicts that if we become a society where unmanned autonomous vehicles are used only when necessary, the number of automobiles in developed countries will drop drastically. (p129) Further expansion of housing and automobile sharing will affect not only new demand but also bank mortgages and car loans. (p190)
These changes don't happen suddenly. Computing as a whole has developed exponentially while connecting multiple S-shaped curves such as electric calculators, relay calculators, vacuum tubes, transistors, and integrated circuits. The author sees that a new paradigm called “3D computing” will begin around 2020, and technological evolution will accelerate further. (p268)
Meanwhile, the author makes a severe evaluation of the Japanese economy. They argue that there are zero interest rates, inducing depreciation of the yen, and policies that have preserved the existing electric/automobile industry against the backdrop of GDP of about 500 trillion yen and almost no growth over the past 25 years. It is said that this prevented the birth of a new leading industry, and it was impossible to make Japanese people rich. (p281)
Therefore, the future that the author envisions is not simple technological optimism. While major bankruptcies and major unemployment occurred after COVID-19, new companies and industries that rode the “6D” wave were born. Instead of assuming that existing companies or current occupations will remain, the central assertion of this book is that anticipating exponential changes in technology like investors, relearning, working for a long time, and making long-term investments is preparation for surviving 2030 and beyond. (p16, 31, 291)